By Georg von Harrach Icelanders are set to vote on whether to reopen talks to join the EU in a closely-watched referendum on Saturday. Subscribe Whilst a raft of reasons – both for and against – dominate discussion within Iceland, Brussels cannot help but see the vote as a popularity contest for the European Union itself. Iceland first began to join the EU back in 2009, but negotiations have been frozen for more than a decade. You’re reading the latest edition of FourGround , a bespoke newsletter brought to you by Channel 4 News’ experienced journalists reporting on the ground from locations across the world. It took a new government in Reykjavík last year and a swirl of international events to put the question of EU membership back on the table. Ahead of the vote this weekend, polling suggests the yes and no camps are neck and neck. One high-profile, pro-EU Icelandic politician told me that it looks “tight”, but she is confident a win is very possible. But with just a few days to go, the outcome is far from certain. ‘Significant decision’ As with the UK’s EU referendum in 2016, the European Commission has decided to keep a low profile ahead of the vote. “This is a significant decision [that] now lies ahead of the Icelandic people,” the European Commission’s spokesperson for Enlargement, Guillaume Mercier, said evenly when the referendum date was announced. [ ]( https://channel4news.substack.com/p/how-ukraine-could-join-the-eu ) [ Why it could take a decade for Ukraine to join the EU ]( https://channel4news.substack.com/p/how-ukraine-could-join-the-eu ) Georg von Harrach · Jun 15 [ Read full story ]( https://channel4news.substack.com/p/how-ukraine-could-join-the-eu ) But there is no doubt that the European Union believes it offers safety in numbers in an uncertain world and the EU would love to have Iceland in the club. “In the geopolitical context, it is fundamentally different from when Iceland first applied to the EU for EU membership,” Mercer added. For decades, Iceland has enjoyed its halfway house position between Europe and the US. But with Donald Trump in the White House, many Icelanders have become nervous. In a speech earlier this year in which Trump raged why the US should take over neighbouring Greenland , the US President suddenly mentioned “Iceland”, not just once, but four times. In a bizarre case of gaslighting, the White House subsequently denied he had done so, instead insisting that Trump had simply “referred to Greenland as a ‘piece of ice’”. There is no doubt that the episode left Icelanders wondering if they would be next in Trump’s sights. ‘Feeling vulnerable’ Iceland is already a member of Nato, which – according to its fundamental principles – provides the island nation of 400,000 people with European and US military protection. Iceland, with no military of its own, is reliant on that umbrella. Perhaps now more than in decades. China and Russia have become much more active and assertive in the Arctic region and that makes Iceland feel vulnerable. [ ]( https://channel4news.substack.com/p/defence-spending-on-table-at-nato ) [ Defence spending on table at Nato summit amid Trump pressure ]( https://channel4news.substack.com/p/defence-spending-on-table-at-nato ) Channel 4 News · Jul 6 [ Read full story ]( https://channel4news.substack.com/p/defence-spending-on-table-at-nato ) Nato has upped its monitoring of Russian submarine activity, particularly in the so-called GIUK gap, an area of water stretching between Greenland-Iceland and the UK, and up into the Arctic circle. “If someone wanted to take out Iceland or cripple it tomorrow, cut the subsea cables or attack the utilities. If that happens, who do we want to call?”, asked Icelandic security expert, Sóley Kaldal, in a discussion programme on Icelandic TV on Monday night. Iceland Forward, the official ‘no’ camp in the referendum campaign, maintains that EU membership would “add nothing to the country’s real security beyond what Nato membership already provides”. The pro-EU camp points to an EU-Iceland Security and Defence Partnership signed earlier this year as a signal that Europe would have Iceland’s back. But security is not the only argument in the referendum debate. What about Iceland’s fisheries? The EU is Iceland’s biggest export market, representing two thirds of Iceland’s total exports. Like Norway and Switzerland, Iceland is already part of the EU’s single market and Schengen travel area. That means it has to adopt and follow many EU rules without having much say over them. An important exception is fisheries, a sector that is historically, symbolically, but also economically important to Iceland. European fishing fleets would love to gain access to Iceland’s resource-rich waters. Icelanders are less keen. Iceland’s fisheries turnover increased from almost 87 billion ISK to 109 billion ISK (£660m) in May-June compared to the same period last year, according to data released on Monday. By contrast, the EU’s fisheries sector has long been in decline. When Iceland previously tried to join the EU, fisheries was one key area where agreement could not be reached. If membership talks do restart, it’s questionable whether the EU would agree to carve out an exception for fish. Joining the EU within ‘one to two years’? But Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir, pictured below, has promised that she would get Iceland a “good agreement”. And according to the EU’s Commissioner in charge of the so-called enlargement process, talks with Iceland could progress very fast. Potentially, Iceland could join the EU within “one to two years”, Marta Kos has predicted. That would mean leapfrogging Ukraine, Moldova and many other countries in the queue, only jostling for first in line with Montenegro, which is expected to join the European Union in 2028. Until the outcome of the vote on Saturday is clear, the EU is nervous about counting its Icelandic chickens before they hatch. If Iceland says yes to talks, another referendum would have to be held later – once negotiations were complete – before Iceland were to become the 28th or 29th member state of the European Union. Thanks for reading the latest edition of our free FourGround newsletter. Subscribe below to keep up to date with Channel 4 News on Substack. Subscribe Share Channel 4 News Leave a commentRead More
Why Iceland is split on joining the EU
