Subscribe JPMorgan’s Tracey Allen says El Niño is only beginning to affect agricultural production, with the largest impact expected from the first quarter of 2027. The weather shock is arriving alongside historically high diesel prices, fertilizer shortages and disrupted trade flows, leaving several major crop regions vulnerable even as carryover inventories continue to cushion physical markets. ✨ Takeaways by Dark Side of the Boom™ JPMorgan expects El Niño’s agricultural impact to become much more visible from Q1 2027 , with NOAA forecasts cited by the bank pointing to peak intensity around November and a 90% probability of a very strong event through the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter. The weather shock is arriving alongside high diesel prices, fertilizer shortages and geopolitical trade disruptions , increasing the cost and complexity of agricultural production. Risks are spread across several important growing regions, including Southeast Asia, India, Brazil and Argentina , affecting palm oil, coffee, cocoa, sugar, rice, cotton, oilseeds, soybeans and corn. Agricultural prices have already started responding. JPMorgan technical strategist Jason Hunter says the JPMCCI Agricultural Index broke to multiyear highs in August, with previous breakout levels likely to provide support on meaningful pullbacks. El Niño Starting to Hit Global Food Supply Chains?Read More
JPM: When Will El Niño Start Hitting Global Food Supply Chains?
