As a boon that allows access to a wide variety of goods, global maritime trade has become a crucial pillar of modern life. While efficient ocean-based trade is often taken for granted on a day-to-day basis, disruptions leave millions across the globe reeling in their wake. Countries, companies, and consumers alike share a common goal of solving trade interruptions—yet the complexities of trade combine with real-world circumstances to make that a cruelly Herculean endeavor. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Maritime Business Administration, Texas A&M University at GalvestonWhen faced with such a wide-ranging problem, a novel solution was needed. Few were better suited to help develop that solution than Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, professor of Maritime Business Administration at Texas A&M University at Galveston. Dr. Rodrigue’s comprehensive knowledge of container ports and analytical acumen made him a crucial asset to the cause. It was no small undertaking either. The project was headed by the World Bank, an international group with 189 member countries. With billions of dollars in disrupted trade and hundreds of millions in development loans at stake, experts of Rodrigue’s caliber were indispensable.“It’s like a doctor—they take your blood pressure, heart rate, et cetera. And they observe symptoms to make a diagnosis,” said Rodrigue. “The same goes for this index. The goal is to have a symptomatic index that observes delays, and then we can associate this problem with a labor conflict, a geopolitical event, or something else.”This freshly crystallized idea would eventually become the publicly accessible Global Supply Chain Stress Index – Maritime (GSCSI-M). The new model had to not only measure disruption at a system-wide scale but also be granular enough to give actionable insights at a port-level as well. Ideally, it would be able to immediately assess where shipping delays were occurring, for how long, and how much cargo was delayed. These capabilities would be unprecedented; data at that level of detail would simply require too much from workers aboard ships and at ports preoccupied with other duties.Fortunately, data like that was already available. Since 2015, nearly every trade vessel has been fitted with the Automatic Identification System (AIS). The system is required for all ships above 300 tons that travel internationally, and chronologically transmits vital information such as a ship’s position, speed, and unique identification. This constant stream of data would serve as the foundation of the new GSCSI-M. By limiting data to ships 965 feet in length or above—otherwise known as Panamax size—the model can eliminate the unnecessary input from smaller vessels not involved in global trade.“With this data you know when they enter a port, we know that they exit a port—we know when they’re on time and we know when they’re delayed,” explained Rodrigue.Simply using AIS data wouldn’t make the Stress Index useful, however. It needed to turn that navigational data into something that can inform all interested parties.This is where the Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) enters the equation. TEU is a standard metric of the cargo capacity of a given vessel, measured in the twenty-foot shipping containers commonly used for transporting goods. Its addition to the Stress Index completes the trifecta of time, location, and cargo capacity, catalyzing the finished GSCSI into something greater than the sum of its parts: an index that can show exactly how much cargo is delayed at ports during a shipping disruption, and can very accurately predict resulting price changes.“We measure if they are delayed, and by how long. And if they are delayed, we know that it’s a 5,000 TEU ship, which has been delayed for a certain number of hours,” said Rodrigue. “With that, we are capable of measuring the delayed capacity.”The ability to calculate delayed shipping capacity at both the micro and macro scales is invaluable. During disruptions, the model can identify shipping bottlenecks and the ports affected downstream, ensuring resources intended to fix the problem are properly allocated. It can be used to estimate revenue lost during trade interruptions, and which ports incidentally thrive or suffer due to rerouted shipping. The fully realized Stress Index is a powerful tool that could finally serve as a finger on the pulse of maritime trade.“What is important is we can finally measure what capacity is lost at a global level,” explained Rodrigue.Despite the unprecedented ability of the Stress Index, even the richest data would be unusable if it couldn’t be communicated clearly. With a broad public target audience in mind, Rodrigue took the output information of the model and made it digestible—packaging it in a way that was usable by decision-makers at all levels. By sculpting the data, and designing maps, charts, and data visualizations, he helped transform raw spreadsheet data into a usable diagnostic tool.“I did some analysis, conceptualization, number crunching, and put the data on map patterns,” Rodrigue said. “Then it started getting some momentum, and broader discussion started around the index.” An example data chart from the GSCSI-M during the 2022 Global Shipping DisruptionAs a result of Rodrigue’s effort, the Stress Index’s capabilities have risen above being used only during disruptions, instead turning into a year-round force for good. Because of the port-level detail and accessibility of the GSCSI-M, even average days can be used to measure port performance, compare the efficacy of shipping policies, and use trends to solve small issues before they become full-blown disruptions.The Index and its research have seen worldwide recognition, including from the Journal of Transport Geography, a top journal in the field. Even so, Rodrigue hopes to elevate the GSCSI-M to even broader horizons.“We are currently refining it to possibly incorporate smaller vessels,” said Rodrigue. “The goal is that it becomes a standard, globally recognized performance metric.”The march towards a brighter, safer world requires equally innovative solutions. For the people of Texas, the nation and beyond, Rodrigue’s contributions to the Global Supply Chain Stress Index represents a concrete step toward building that future. With the potential to change countless lives across the globe, it is a shining example of how work done at Texas A&M University at Galveston impacts the world.Read More
