Productivity gains from AI are expected to be significant, but how international trade shapes the cross-country distribution of these gains remains an open question. This column combines evidence on task-level productivity gains, sectoral AI exposure, and projected AI adoption with a global multi-country, multi-sector trade model to show that AI-driven productivity gains will vary widely across countries. A key insight is that while countries lagging in AI adoption can gain from cheaper imports of goods and services whose production benefits from AI, maintaining competitiveness in global markets ultimately requires strong domestic AI adoption.Read More
