Can we predict ionospheric turbulence? A Bayesian model offers a global warning system

Space weather can disrupt satellite navigation and communication systems by triggering rapid fluctuations in the ionosphere. A new study introduces a global probabilistic forecasting model that predicts when and where ionospheric disturbances—measured by the Rate of total electron content (TEC) Index (ROTI)—are likely to persist. Unlike previous machine learning approaches, the new method embraces the bursty, heavy-tailed nature of ionospheric activity using a Bayesian framework. It also takRead More