Global and regional burden of pancreatitis: epidemiological trends, risk factors, and projections to 2050 from the global burden of disease study 2021

Background Pancreatitis is a significant global health concern with rising incidence, complex management, and substantial mortality. This study aimed to assess global and regional trends in pancreatitis from 1990 to 2021 and project future trends to 2050 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. Methods We analyzed GBD 2021 data to evaluate age-standardized incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of pancreatitis. Regional trends, gender disparities, and correlations with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) were examined. Key risk factors, including alcohol consumption, smoking, and metabolic disorders such as hyperlipidemia, were extracted and evaluated. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model (BAPC) was used for future projections. Results From 1990 to 2021, global pancreatitis cases increased from 1.73 million to 2.75 million, representing a rise of 59%. Despite this, ASIR decreased slightly from 37.62 to 32.81 per 100,000, a 12.8% reduction. Deaths rose from 68,490 to 122,416, an increase of 78.7%, while ASMR decreased from 1.69 to 1.45 per 100,000, a reduction of 14.2%. DALYs increased from 2.58 million to 4.10 million (59%). Significant regional variations were found, with Eastern Europe showing the highest ASIR, ASMR, and DALY rates. Projections indicate continued declines in ASIR, ASMR, and DALYs through 2050. Conclusions While global age-standardized rates of pancreatitis have declined, significant regional and socioeconomic disparities persist. Targeted prevention efforts, particularly in high-burden areas like Eastern Europe, and addressing modifiable risk factors such as alcohol use are crucial for reducing the future burden of pancreatitis.Read More